FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Twenty-two gaging stations were selected for developing a regional flood frequency curve for small (area less than 2 square miles) watersheds in southern Illinois. Five probability functions were compared, and the extreme value type I function was selected to develop the regional flood curve. The curve was generated with the index flood method and also another empirical method that related the function parameters to the watershed area. Estimated peak discharges with various return periods were compared with the results obtained from multiple regression analysis.     

Outlier identification and visualization for Pb concentrations in urban soils and its implications for identification of potential contaminated land

Outliers in urban soil geochemical databases may imply potential contaminated land. Different methodologies which can be easily implemented for the identification of global and spatial outliers were applied for Pb concentrations in urban soils of Galway City in Ireland. Due to its strongly skewed probability feature, a Box–Cox transformation was performed prior to further analyses. The graphic methods of histogram and box-and-whisker plot were effective in identification of global outliers at the original scale of the dataset. Spatial outliers could be identified by a local indicator of spatial association of local Moran's I, cross-validation of kriging, and a geographically weighted regression. The spatial locations of outliers were visualised using a geographical information system. Different methods showed generally consistent results, but differences existed. It is suggested that outliers identified by statistical methods should be confirmed and justified using scientific knowledge before they are properly dealt with.     

An integrated impact assessment and weighting methodology: evaluation of the environmental consequences of computer display technology substitution

Computer display technology is currently in a state of transition, as the traditional technology of cathode ray tubes is being replaced by liquid crystal display flat-panel technology. Technology substitution and process innovation require the evaluation of the trade-offs among environmental impact, cost, and engineering performance attributes. General impact assessment methodologies, decision analysis and management tools, and optimization methods commonly used in engineering cannot efficiently address the issues needed for such evaluation. The conventional Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) process often generates results that can be subject to multiple interpretations, although the advantages of the LCA concept and framework obtain wide recognition. In the present work, the LCA concept is integrated with Quality Function Deployment (QFD), a popular industrial quality management tool, which is used as the framework for the development of our integrated model. The problem of weighting is addressed by using pairwise comparison of stakeholder preferences. Thus, this paper presents a new integrated analytical approach, Integrated Industrial Ecology Function Deployment (I2-EFD), to assess the environmental behavior of alternative technologies in correlation with their performance and economic characteristics. Computer display technology is used as the case study to further develop our methodology through the modification and integration of various quality management tools (e.g., process mapping, prioritization matrix) and statistical methods (e.g., multi-attribute analysis, cluster analysis). Life cycle thinking provides the foundation for our methodology, as we utilize a published LCA report, which stopped at the characterization step, as our starting point. Further, we evaluate the validity and feasibility of our methodology by considering uncertainty and conducting sensitivity analysis.     

某集约化肉鸡饲养场PM2.5中抗生素抗性基因的分布特征

集约化家禽饲养场是抗生素抗性基因(ARGs)的重要来源,而PM_(2.5)作为ARGs可能向人体暴露的重要途径还未得到很好地研究.本文采集了集约化肉鸡饲养场舍内PM_(2.5)和粪便以及舍外PM_(2.5)样品,利用荧光定量PCR(q PCR)进行一类整合子(int I1)、总细菌(16S r DNA)和6类共19种ARGs丰度的检测.结果显示,除blaGES-1和blaSHV-1之外,其余17种ARGs在6类样品中均有检出.磺胺类、四环素类、大环内酯类和氨基糖苷类抗性基因在舍内粪便中丰度较高,达到1. 04×109～3. 27×1010copies·g-1,粪便是饲养场PM_(2.5)中ARGs的主要来源.舍内PM_(2.5)中以磺胺类和大环内酯类抗性基因丰度较高,分别为(8. 9±1. 9)×107copies·m-3和(5. 6±3. 1)×107copies·m-3,且舍内PM_(2.5)中ARGs丰度明显高于舍外. PM_(2.5)质量浓度与16S r DNA、int I1和ARGs丰度呈显著正相关,表明集约化饲养场中PM_(2.5)是空气传播细菌、ARGs和int I1的储存库和传播者. 6类样品中int I1丰度均高于ARGs,同时int I1和ARGs的共存关系表现出了多药耐药性的威胁,易对饲养人员和家禽健康及周边空气环境造成危害.     

发挥区域资源优势，发展“一优两高”农业──岩头镇农业资源优势的开发布局探讨

本文分析评价了永嘉县岩头镇农业综合开发的优势条件、开发潜力，提出了开发农业的方向、区域布局和开发项目和开发措施。     

Temperature effects on mortality and household adaptation: Evidence from China

This paper examines the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality rates, using random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level panel data from China. The analysis finds a robust, U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality rates, indicating that extremely cold or hot temperatures lead to excess deaths. The heat-related (cold-related) effect is 3.5 times (3.2 times) as large as previous findings that used U.S. data, and it is especially large for the elderly population, mainly due to excess deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. Applying these results to climate change predictions from Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model shows that by 2061–2080 the annual mortality rate is likely to increase by 14.2% if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the estimated health cost of which is around 0.98 trillion Chinese Yuan per year. The paper also explores households’ adaptation behaviors to extreme temperatures. It finds that although urban households adaptively increase energy consumption when they are exposed to cold temperatures and purchase more air conditioners on hot and cold days, rural households are unresponsive to temperature fluctuations. This finding implies that rural people may be more resource constrained and suffer more when extreme temperatures occur.     

CEO education and corporate environmental footprint

We analyze the effect of CEO education on environmental decision-making. Using a unique sample of Danish firms from 1996 to 2012, we find that CEO education significantly improves firms' energy efficiency. We seek to derive causality using health shocks: the hospitalization of highly educated CEOs induces a drop in energy efficiency, whereas the hospitalization of less educated CEOs does not have any significant effect. Exploring the mechanisms at play, we show that our results are largely driven by advanced education in business degrees. Moreover, we show that CEO education is associated with greater environmental awareness: highly educated CEOs exhibit greater concerns for climate change, as measured by a survey of social preferences, and drive more environmentally efficient cars. Taken together, our findings suggest that education shapes managerial styles giving rise to greater sustainability in corporate actions.     

Can climate mitigation help the poor? Measuring impacts of the CDM in rural China

This study examines whether investment in climate change mitigation contributes to poverty alleviation. We investigate the impacts of the renewable energy-based clean development mechanism (RE-CDM) projects on rural communities in China. The impacts of RE-CDM projects are estimated by combining propensity score matching with the difference-in-differences approach. We found that the biomass-based CDM projects significantly contribute to income improvement and employment generation in rural communities in China. Our estimation results also reveal that wind energy-based CDM projects have the potential to increase income and the share of labor force in the primary industry in rural areas. These results suggest different channels through which renewable energy sources affect income.     

火灾发生率空间分异及影响因素研究

为了探究我国火灾空间聚集特征与影响因素的空间异质性，采用全局莫兰指数、局部莫兰指数、逐步回归模型、地理加权回归模型、地理探测器方法对我国地级市单元进行研究。研究结果表明:我国火灾发生率具有显著的聚集性；我国火灾发生率较低的“冷点”区域有1个，火灾发生率较高的“热点”区域有4个；人均GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入、人口密度、年平均气温4 个因素的影响效应具有空间异质性。人均GDP与火灾发生率为正相关，另外3影响因素对火灾发生率的作用表现出正负2种相关关系；2因素交互作用要比单因素作用于火灾发生率时影响力更显著，各影响因素的交互作用类型有非线性增强型和双因子增强型2种。     

Safety I–II,resilience and antifragility engineering: a debate explained through an accident occurring on a mobile elevating work platform

Occupational health and safety (OHS) represents an important field of exploration for the research community: in spite of the growth of technological innovations, the increasing complexity of systems involves critical issues in terms of degradation of the safety levels. In such a situation, new safety management approaches are now mandatory in order to face the safety implications of the current technological evolutions. Along these lines, performing risk-based analysis alone seems not to be enough anymore. The evaluation of robustness, antifragility and resilience of a socio-technical system is now indispensable in order to face unforeseen events. This article will briefly introduce the topics of Safety I and Safety II, resilience engineering and antifragility engineering, explaining correlations, overlapping aspects and synergies. Secondly, the article will discuss the applications of those paradigms to a real accident, highlighting how they can challenge, stimulate and inspire research for improving OHS conditions.